Otkad je pionirka obrazovnog radio emitiranja Mary Somerville uvjeravala slušatelje da “ Televizija^(Television) neće potrajati. To je bljesak u tavi”, gurui gadgeta su spektakularno pogriješili – pogotovo kada imaju udjela u tom pitanju. Ovdje gledamo pet nevjerojatno lažnih uvjeravanja datih s najboljim namjerama, iskustvom i manje točnosti od horoskopa koji je preveo pas koji laje.

1.  “Zahvaljujući entuzijastičnom odazivu potrošača na N-Gage QD i naše najnovije naslove, uvjereni smo da će se naš uspjeh u vođenju svijeta mobilnih igara nastaviti” ^{(“Thanks to the enthusiastic consumer response to the N-Gage QD and our latest titles, we’re confident that our success in leading the mobile gaming world will continue”)}
Ilkka Raiskinen, Nokijin viši potpredsjednik za igre^{(Ilkka Raiskinen, Nokia’s Senior Vice President of Games)} .

Ako je ikada postojao dokaz da rukovoditelji igara žive u psihotičnom samozavaravajućem svijetu zbog kojeg Nixonova administracija^{(Nixon Administration)} izgleda kao predškolska skupina za slikanje prstima, to je ova izjava. N-Gage je bio, jest i (osim podrške Isusa Krista koji se vratio^{(Jesus Christ Returned)} ) uvijek će biti šala u industriji igara. Gornji citat je iz priopćenja za tisak iz Nokie^(Nokia) u rujnu 2004.^{(September 2004)} , kojim se slavi isporuka njihove milijunte konzole. Obratite pažnju na ključnu riječ “dostava” umjesto “prodaja ” – Nokia ima naviku ponašati se ponosno na to koliko jedinica napravi kada ih nitko ne želi kupiti, što većina tvrtki smatra “lošom stvari”.

Što je još gore, ovo je drugi put da su ovo isprobali s N-Gageom – tvrdili su da je četiristo tisuća špilova prodano u prvih dva tjedna nakon lansiranja sustava. Prodali su zapravo samo šest tisuća. To nije samo loše – to je apsolutno, zapanjujuće, strašno loše – toliko loše da su Gamestop i EB počeli vraćati kupcima 100 USD po jedinici tri dana kasnije. Shvatite: ova konzola je prošla toliko loše da su trgovine vratile novac jer je cijelo njeno postojanje bilo pokvareno.

Gornji citat je dvostruko tragičan jer slavi N-Gage QD, koji je objavljen samo šest mjeseci nakon originalnog N-Gagea. Kad tako brzo objavite nadogradnju, priznajete kako je prethodnik bio loše napravljen, a originalni N-Gage bio je toliko pun nedostataka u dizajnu da se činilo da ga je napravio netko tko je čuo ljude kako govore o Game Boyu^{(Game Boy)} u jednom dizalo, ali ga nikad nisam vidio. Ali većina ljudi već je potpuno odbacila sustav, a većina "entuzijastičnih potrošača" nikada nije ni čula za QD.

2.  Segway će biti “velika stvar kao PC” ^{(Segway to be “as big a deal as the PC”)}
Steve Jobs, za kojeg ste možda čuli.^{(Steve Jobs, who you might have heard of.)}

Ovo nevjerojatno uvjeravanje, objavljeno u ne manjem broju od časopisa Time , bilo je tipično za hiper-pojavu koja je dovela do izdavanja Segwaya^(Segway) . Stručnjaci i profesionalci izgradili su ga tako visoko da su tvorci koristili Empire State building kao oslonac za noge, i postalo je prilično jasno da bi, ako je lijek za rak objavljen 3. prosinca^{(December 3rd)} 2001., trebalo pričekati dok Segway Incorporated ne završi razgovor. Uzimajući u obzir reakciju u stvarnom svijetu na "revolucionarni" proizvod, možemo samo zaključiti da je model za pretpregled Steve Jobs i drugi koji su bili izloženi bio obložen LSD-om i šećernom^{(LSD-and-sugar)} glazurom.

Ostaje činjenica da bi Segway trebao uspjeti – to je način kretanja po gradovima, a da ne morate negdje pronaći prokleti prostor veličine Hummera, odlikuje se izvrsnim inženjeringom i genijalnim inovacijama. Samo je^(Just) . izgleda^(Looks) . glupo^(Stupid) . “Cool faktor” se ne može jamčiti (a da je išta moglo biti, bio bi to ovaj homofoni čovjek-pomagač), a kada je kolektiv “ Vruće^(Hot) ili ne?” stigla je presuda, došla je u obliku deset tisuća identičnih stand-up strip viceva. Segway Incorporatedjoš uvijek su u tome na duge staze, istražuju i objavljuju poboljšane verzije koje rješavaju svaki tehnički problem koji pronađu – i jednostavno se nadaju da će ljudi preboljeti sebe i krenuti na prokletu stvar prije nego što Segway HT pošalju igrati se sa Sinclairom C5^{(Sinclair C5)} .

3.  “Naši potrošači, koji koriste PSP kao video player više nego ikad, žedni su za više sadržaja, posebno kratkih videozapisa” ^{(“Our consumers, who are utilizing PSP as a video player more than ever, are thirsting for more content, particularly short-form videos”)}
Phil Rosenberg, viši potpredsjednik prodaje i poslovnog razvoja, Sony Computer Entertainment America.^{(Phil Rosenberg, senior vice president of sales and business development, Sony Computer Entertainment America.)}

Još jedan slučaj PR-govora^(PR-speak) koji je apsolutno točan koliko god ide i ni mikron dalje. Na primjer: ako bi svih pet korisnika Atari Lynxa^{(Atari Lynx)} počelo koristiti svoje starinske slušalice kao držače za knjige, onda bi moglo biti da " potrošači Atari Lynxa^{(Atari Lynx)} koriste svoj sustav kao književne uređaje više nego ikad", ali to još uvijek ne znači da postoje jako puno ili da je to dobra ideja.

Filmovi UMD^(UMD) -a bili su neublažen promašaj, čak ih je čak i Walmart odbijao više skladištiti – i ne znam jeste li primijetili, ali ti dečki prodaju sve. Većina neuspjeha može se pripisati izravno Sonyju^(Sony) . Kao i obično, samo su pretpostavili da će ljudi kupiti njihov proizvod (očito pate od amnezije nakon Betamaxa^(Betamax) i Minidiska^(Minidisc) ) i odmah su krenuli s osakaćivanjem vlastitog proizvoda kako bi zaštitili sav novac koji su namjeravali zaraditi. Ne možete reproducirati UMD filmove na TV-u jer tada ne biste kupili DVD , a zatim Blu-ray . Sonystvarno ste očekivali da ćete svaki film kupiti tri puta i bili su istinski šokirani kada su se korisnici uzrujali zbog toga. Nisu dostupni prazni diskovi ili snimači kako bi se spriječilo piratstvo – a siguran sam da je taj potez odgodio pirate koji su pucali na UMD diskove za tri, možda četiri cijele minute. Dok istovremeno i trajno osakaćuje cijelu korisničku bazu.

Problem s piratstvom postao je loš do sramotno glup kada se otkrilo da ne samo da se igre mogu lako kopirati na PSP memorijski stick, već su zapravo radile BRŽE^(FASTER) nego na glupim službenim UMD diskovima. Jao! Jedina rastuća industrija u UMD filmovima je ona koju Sony nije želio, tržište japanskih porno filmova. Sony je to opisao "vrlo nepoželjnim", vjerojatno zaboravljajući da su videozapisi za odrasle bili veliki dio zašto ih je VHS sravnio davno. Iako bi itko želio gledati pornografiju na ekranu na kojem mora škiljiti da bi nešto vidio, osim da bi autentično rekreirao taj “voajerski” osjećaj, nejasno je.

4.  “Oduševljeni smo što su HD DVD format neovisno podržali Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema i Warner Bros. Studios.” ^{(“We are delighted that the HD DVD format has been independently endorsed by Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema, and Warner Bros. Studios.”)}
G. Tadashi Okamura, predsjednik i izvršni direktor Toshiba Corporation.^{(Mr. Tadashi Okamura, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation.)}

HD-DVD : osvajač srebrne medalje u posljednjem ratu formata, natjecanje u kojem se svi osim zlata izvlače i pucaju u glavu. Činilo se da je HD-DVD sjajno krenuo – taj citat sadrži neka vrlo velika imena i to je bila istina i ništa osim istine. To samo ostavlja malu stvar koja se zove “cijela istina”, i tu stvari postaju zanimljive. Postoji mnogo drugih velikih imena koja su se zavjetovala na vjernost Blu-Rayu^(Blu-Ray) , poput Walta Disneyja^{(Walt Disney)} , 20th Century Foxa^{(Century Fox)} , Buena Vista slika – i začudo, činilo se da Sony Pictures ne želi proizvoditi HD-DVD^(HD-DVDs) .

Pozornica je bila pripremljena za žestoku bitku koja je mogla potresti vijekove osim jedne male stvari – kupce jednostavno nije bilo briga. Činilo se da su veliki^(Big) poduzetnici bili istinski zbunjeni što se peoni ne redaju, moleći se za priliku da ponovno kupe sve svoje filmove u malo drugačijem, skupljem formatu. Zapjenjene tehničke analize bjesnile su naprijed-natrag po webu potpuno nesvjesne činjenice da osim ako niste T800 naoružan preciznim mikroskopom, nema apsolutno nikakve razlike između Blu-Raya^(Blu-Ray) i HD-DVD-a^(HD-DVD) . Zapravo, za obične ljude, obojica se moraju jako potruditi da dokažu da išta nije u redu s DVD-ovima^(DVDs) koje već posjedujemo, a “Zato što ljudi koji prodaju nove stvari tako kažu” to ne smanjuje.

Shvativši da su pokrenuli rat i da nitko ne dolazi, Warner Bros je poduzeo odlučnu akciju. Sve skuplji i besmisleni sukob nije morao biti “pobijeđen”, morao je biti ZAVRŠEN^(OVER) i što je prije moguće. U siječnju 2008.^{(January 2008)} okončali su ga u obliku masivnog bodeža s WB logotipom u HD-DVD-ovima^(HD-DVDs) natrag skokom u Blu-Ray kamp. Od tog trenutka HD-DVD je bio brza rekreacija Titanica^(Titanic) s dodatnim ledom, a mjesec dana kasnije Toshiba je podigla zastavu predaje.

5.  "Učinit ćemo sve potrebne resurse dostupnim kako bismo osigurali uspješno lansiranje." ^{( “We will make every necessary resource available to ensure a successful launch.”)}
Carl Freer, suosnivač i predsjednik Gizmonda.^{(Carl Freer, Co-founder and Chairman, Gizmondo.)}

Kad je Carl to rekao, nije se petljao. Elitni londonski^{(Elite London)} ured za lansiranje, cijela agencija prekrasnih manekenki, uništeni Ferarris i švedska mafija^(Mafia) – to nije samo lansiranje na konzoli, to je film o Jamesu Bondu^{(James Bond)} . Tvrtka Gizmondo , za one od vas koji se već niste nasmijali tom sjećanju, postala je sinonim za “potpuno suludu potrošnju” i to je bilo samo “uspješno lansiranje” na isti način na koji je Waterworld bio “uspješan film koji je zaradio novac”.

Tvrtka je bankrotirala nakon što je ostvarila gubitak od više od tristo milijuna dolara dok je prodala manje od dvadeset pet tisuća jedinica. Da to stavimo u perspektivu, mogli su postići veću prodaju uz niže troškove tako što su napisali "Gizmondo" na kartonske kutije od po deset tisuća dolara i samo ih dali na uglovima ulica.

The 5 Worst Reassurances in Tech History

Ever since educаtional radio brоadcasting pioneer Mary Somerville assured listeners that “Television won’t last. It’s a flash in the pan”, gadget gurus have been spectacυlarly wrong – especially when they have a stake in the іssue. Here we look at fiνe fabulously falѕe assurances made with the best оf intentionѕ, thе benefit of experience, and less accuracy than a horoscope translated by a barking dog.

1. “Thanks to the enthusiastic consumer response to the N-Gage QD and our latest titles, we’re confident that our success in leading the mobile gaming world will continue”
Ilkka Raiskinen, Nokia’s Senior Vice President of Games.

If ever there was proof that gaming executives live in a psychotically self-delusional world that makes the Nixon Administration look like a preschool fingerpainting group, it’s this statement. The N-Gage was, is, and (barring support from Jesus Christ Returned) always will be a joke in the gaming industry. The above quote is from a press release from Nokia in September 2004, celebrating the shipping of their millionth console. Note the vital word “shipping” instead of “sale” – Nokia has a habit of acting proud of how many units they build when nobody wants to buy them, which most businesses regard as a “bad thing.”

Worse, this is the second time they’d tried this with the N-Gage – they claimed that four hundred thousand decks had sold in the first fortnight after the systems launch. They’d actually only sold six thousand. That isn’t just bad – that’ absolutely, staggeringly, face-breakingly bad – so bad that Gamestop and EB started refunding buyers $100 per unit three days later. Understand: this console did so badly that stores refunded money because its entire existence was broken.

The above quote is doubly tragic as it celebrates the N-Gage QD, which was released only six months after the original N-Gage. When you release an upgrade that quickly you’re admitting how crappily made the predecessor was, and the original N-Gage was so full of design flaws it seemed to have been built by somebody who’d heard people talking about a Game Boy in an elevator once but had never actually seen one. But most people had already utterly dismissed the system, and most of the “enthusiastic consumers” never even heard of the QD.

2. Segway to be “as big a deal as the PC”
Steve Jobs, who you might have heard of.

This incredible assurance, reported in no less a publication than Time magazine, was typical of the hyper-hype leading up to the release of the Segway. Pundits and professionals built it up so high the makers used the Empire State building as a footrest, and it became pretty clear that if the cure for cancer was announced on December 3rd 2001 it would have had to wait until Segway Incorporated were finished talking. Considering the real-world reaction to the “revolutionary” product, we can only conclude the preview model Steve Jobs and others were exposed to was coated in LSD-and-sugar frosting.

The fact remains that the Segway should succeed – it’s a way of getting around cities without having to find a bloody Hummer-sized space somewhere, it features excellent engineering and ingenious innovations. It Just. Looks. Stupid. The “cool factor” cannot be guaranteed (and if anything could have been, it would have been this homophonous human-helper) and when the collective “Hot or Not?” verdict came in, it came in the form of ten thousand identical stand-up comic jokes. Segway Incorporated are still in it for the long haul, researching and releasing improved versions which address every technical issue they find – and simply hoping that people get over themselves and get on the damn thing before the Segway HT is sent to play with the Sinclair C5.

3. “Our consumers, who are utilizing PSP as a video player more than ever, are thirsting for more content, particularly short-form videos”
Phil Rosenberg, senior vice president of sales and business development, Sony Computer Entertainment America.

Another case of PR-speak that’s absolutely true as far as it goes and not one micron further. For example: if all five Atari Lynx users were to start using their antique handsets as bookends, then it may be that “Atari Lynx consumers are using their system as literary devices more than ever,” but that still doesn’t mean that there are very many or that it’s a good idea.

UMD Movies have been an unmitigated failure, with even Walmart refusing to stock them anymore – and I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but those guys sell everything. Most of the failure can be attributed directly to Sony. As per usual they just assumed that people would buy their product (apparently suffering from amnesia after the Betamax and Minidisc) and immediately set about crippling their own product to safeguard all the money they were about to earn. You can’t playback UMD movies on a TV because then you wouldn’t buy a DVD, and then a Blu-ray. Sony really did expect you to buy every movie three times and were genuinely shocked when users got upset about that. No blank discs or recorders are available in order to prevent piracy – and I’m sure that move delayed the pirates cracking UMD discs by three, maybe four whole minutes. While simultaneously and permanently crippling the entire user base.

The piracy issue went from bad to embarrassingly stupid when it was revealed that not only could games easily by copied onto the PSP memory stick, but they actually worked FASTER than when on the stupid official UMD discs. Ouch! The only growth industry in UMD movies is one Sony didn’t want, a market in Japanese porn movies. Sony described this “highly undesirable”, possibly forgetting that adult videos were a big part of why VHS flattened them way back when. Though why anybody would want to watch porn on a screen where they have to squint to see anything, other than to authentically recreate that “voyeur” feeling, it unclear.

4. “We are delighted that the HD DVD format has been independently endorsed by Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema, and Warner Bros. Studios.”
Mr. Tadashi Okamura, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation.

The HD-DVD: silver medalist the most recent format war, a contest where everybody except gold is taken out back and shot through the head. It seemed that HD-DVD was off to a flying start – that quote contains some very big names and it was the truth and nothing but the truth. That just leaves a little thing called “the whole truth”, and that’s where things get interesting. There are lots of other big names which had pledged Blu-Ray allegiance, like Walt Disney, 20th Century Fox, Buena Vista pictures – and strangely enough Sony Pictures seemed unwilling to produce HD-DVDs.

The stage was set for a pitched battle that could have rocked the ages except for one tiny thing – the customers just didn’t care. Big business seemed genuinely confused that the peons weren’t lining up, pleading for the chance to buy all their movies again in a slightly different, more expensive format. Frothing technical analyses raged back and forth across the web starkly ignorant of the fact that unless you’re a T800 armed with a precision microscope there is absolutely no difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. In fact, for regular humans, both have to work very hard to prove there’s anything wrong with the DVDs we already own and “Because the people selling the new things say so” doesn’t cut it.

Realizing that they’d thrown a war and nobody was coming Warner Bros took decisive action. The increasingly expensive and pointless conflict didn’t have to be “won”, it had to be OVER and as quickly as possible. In January 2008 they ended it in the form of a massive, WB-logoed dagger in HD-DVDs back by jumping to the Blu-Ray camp. From that point on HD-DVD was a fast-motion recreation of the Titanic with extra ice, and a month later Toshiba raised the surrender flag.

5. “We will make every necessary resource available to ensure a successful launch.”
Carl Freer, Co-founder and Chairman, Gizmondo.

When Carl said that, he wasn’t messing around. Elite London launch offices, an entire agency of beautiful models, wrecked Ferarris and the Swedish Mafia – that’s not just a console launch, that’s a James Bond movie. The Gizmondo company, for those of you not already laughing at the memory, became synonymous with “utterly insane spending” and it was only a “successful launch” in the same way Waterworld was a “successful money-making movie.”

The company went bankrupt after racking up well over three hundred million dollars in losses while selling less than twenty-five thousand units. To put that in perspective, they could have achieved greater sales with lower costs by writing “Gizmondo” on cardboard boxes containing ten thousand dollars each and just giving them out on street corners.

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